# Release Oracle

> Estimated release dates for upcoming AI models, derived from public prediction-market probabilities and updated daily. Every figure is reproducible from the linked source markets.

Last updated: 2026-08-31. Tracking 16 models, 13 with a priced median date.

## Method

Each public "released by <date>?" contract is read as one point on a cumulative probability curve. A deadline includes its own day, so the probability between two contracts belongs to the days that follow the earlier one, spread evenly across them. Points are sorted, corrected for small non-monotonicities, and the 50% crossing gives the median expected release day. The 25% and 75% crossings give the uncertainty window. Probability mass within a week and a month of the median is reported so the precision of each date is explicit — a date with 3% within a week should be cited as a month, not a day.

Forecasts are market signals, not announcements from any lab, and can be wrong. Release Oracle is not affiliated with Polymarket or any AI model lab.

## Current forecasts

- [GPT-6](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/gpt-6): Oct 3, 2026 (5.8% within a week, 52% within a month) — OpenAI
- [Next Google Gemini Pro Model](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-google-gemini-pro-model): Oct 22, 2026 (24% within a week, 84% within a month) — Google DeepMind
- [Next Mythos-Class Model](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-mythos-class-model): Sep 2, 2026 (82% within a week, 93% within a month) — Anthropic
- [OpenAI’s Astra](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/openai-s-astra): Sep 11, 2026 (59% within a week, 88% within a month) — OpenAI
- [Gemini 4.0](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/gemini-4-0): Oct 20, 2026 (25% within a week, 68% within a month) — Google DeepMind
- [Next Claude Opus](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-claude-opus): Sep 24, 2026 (30% within a week, 88% within a month) — Anthropic
- [Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+)](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-z-ai-glm-5-4): Oct 14, 2026 (20% within a week, 77% within a month) — Frontier lab
- [Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-google-gemini-flash-model-3-8): Sep 12, 2026 (49% within a week, 97% within a month) — Google DeepMind
- [Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+)](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-openai-gpt-image-model-2-1): Sep 21, 2026 (34% within a week, 89% within a month) — OpenAI
- [Next Kimi K model](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-kimi-k-model): Sep 14, 2026 (47% within a week, 91% within a month) — Moonshot AI
- [Next Claude Sonnet](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-claude-sonnet): Oct 13, 2026 (17% within a week, 58% within a month) — Anthropic
- [Grok 5](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/grok-5): Dec 23, 2026 (22% within a week, 73% within a month) — xAI
- [Next Claude Haiku](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models/next-claude-haiku): Oct 24, 2026 (10% within a week, 27% within a month) — Anthropic

## Data

- [All models](https://releaseoracle.xyz/models)
- [JSON API](https://releaseoracle.xyz/api/forecasts)
- [Feed](https://releaseoracle.xyz/feed.xml)