Google DeepMind · model release forecast
When is Gemini 4.0 expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 5 to Nov 22
15% within a week60% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Gemini 4.0 release around Oct 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026. Markets imply a 15% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 60% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $259K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
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One email when the Gemini 4.0 forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 0.9% | |
| By Sep 15, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 19% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 56% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 81% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for Gemini 4.0 has held steady, from Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026.
Also tracked