Google DeepMind · model release forecast
When is Gemini 4.0 expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 13 to Oct 20
80% within a week93% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Gemini 4.0 release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Markets imply a 80% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 93% within a month. The estimate is based on 7 active deadline contracts with $1.5M of traded volume. It has moved 10 days earlier over the past 50 days.
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Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the Gemini 4.0 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 13, 2026 | 27% | |
| By Oct 14, 2026 | 47% | |
| By Oct 15, 2026 | 65% | |
| By Oct 16, 2026 | 69% | |
| By Oct 23, 2026 | 82% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 90% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 98% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for Gemini 4.0 has moved 10 days earlier, from Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026.
Common questions
About the Gemini 4.0 forecast
When is Gemini 4.0 expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Gemini 4.0 release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Markets imply a 80% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 93% within a month. The estimate is based on 7 active deadline contracts with $1.5M of traded volume. It has moved 10 days earlier over the past 50 days.
How precise is the Gemini 4.0 release date forecast?
Markets place 80% of the probability within a week of the median date and 93% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Gemini 4.0 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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