Frontier lab · model release forecast
When is SSI public model expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
1.8% within a week8.0% within a monthSSI public model is not expected before Oct 31, 2026 — only 48% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Dec 2026. Markets imply a 1.8% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 8.0% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $44K of traded volume.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email when the SSI public model forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 22% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 28% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 48% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since Aug 23, 2026. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Also tracked