Frontier lab · model release forecast
When is SSI public model expected to be released?
Market-implied median
5.1% within a week39% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the SSI public model release around Dec 15, 2026, with the window opening Nov 13, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 5.1% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 39% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $133K of traded volume. It has moved 46 days later over the past 50 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the SSI public model forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 11% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 45% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 56% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for SSI public model has moved 46 days later, from Oct 30, 2026 to Dec 15, 2026.
Common questions
About the SSI public model forecast
When is SSI public model expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the SSI public model release around Dec 15, 2026, with the window opening Nov 13, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 5.1% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 39% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $133K of traded volume. It has moved 46 days later over the past 50 days.
How precise is the SSI public model release date forecast?
Markets place 5.1% of the probability within a week of the median date and 39% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the SSI public model release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked