Google DeepMind · model release forecast
When is the next Google Gemini Pro Model expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
3.2% within a week13% within a monthThe next Google Gemini Pro Model is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 34% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Feb 2027. Markets imply a 3.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 13% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $1.6M of traded volume. It has moved 37 days later over the past 41 days.
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One email the day before the the next Google Gemini Pro Model forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 15, 2026 | 3.8% | |
| By Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 9.5% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 33% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 34% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Google Gemini Pro Model has moved 37 days later, from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 16, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next Google Gemini Pro Model forecast
When is the next Google Gemini Pro Model expected to be released?
The next Google Gemini Pro Model is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 34% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Feb 2027. Markets imply a 3.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 13% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $1.6M of traded volume. It has moved 37 days later over the past 41 days.
How precise is the Next Google Gemini Pro Model release date forecast?
Markets place 3.2% of the probability within a week of the median date and 13% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Google Gemini Pro Model release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked