OpenAI · model release forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
2.1% within a week8.6% within a monthThe next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) is not expected before Nov 30, 2026 — only 16% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about May 2027. Markets imply a 2.1% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 8.6% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $42K of traded volume. It has moved 44 days later over the past 17 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 16% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 3, 2026 the expected release date for the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) has moved 44 days later, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 18, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) expected to be released?
The next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) is not expected before Nov 30, 2026 — only 16% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about May 2027. Markets imply a 2.1% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 8.6% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $42K of traded volume. It has moved 44 days later over the past 17 days.
How precise is the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release date forecast?
Markets place 2.1% of the probability within a week of the median date and 8.6% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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