OpenAI · model release forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 25 to Nov 21
32% within a week87% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release around Nov 4, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 25, 2026 to Nov 21, 2026. Markets imply a 32% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 87% within a month. The estimate is based on 8 active deadline contracts with $60K of traded volume. It has moved 30 days later over the past 49 days.
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Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 23, 2026 | 21% | |
| By Oct 26, 2026 | 27% | |
| By Oct 27, 2026 | 30% | |
| By Oct 28, 2026 | 33% | |
| By Oct 29, 2026 | 34% | |
| By Oct 30, 2026 | 39% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 46% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 90% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 3, 2026 the expected release date for the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) has moved 30 days later, from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release around Nov 4, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 25, 2026 to Nov 21, 2026. Markets imply a 32% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 87% within a month. The estimate is based on 8 active deadline contracts with $60K of traded volume. It has moved 30 days later over the past 49 days.
How precise is the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release date forecast?
Markets place 32% of the probability within a week of the median date and 87% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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