Live forecast · 17 models tracked
When is the next major AI model expected to be released?
The next Fable Model (5.2+) · market-implied median
Prediction markets currently put the next Fable Model (5.2+) release around Oct 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 20, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026. Markets imply a 82% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 90% within a month. The estimate is based on 8 active deadline contracts with $514K of traded volume.
Every tracked model
Estimated AI model release dates
| Model | Lab | Expected release | Within a week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model | Google DeepMind | About Feb 13, 2027 | 4.5% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) | Anthropic | Oct 22, 2026 | 82% |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ | OpenAI | Nov 17, 2026 | 14% |
| SSI public model | Frontier lab | About Jan 25, 2027 | 4.3% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) | OpenAI | About Dec 21, 2026 | 8.2% |
| Claude 6 | Anthropic | May 2, 2027 | 5.7% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) | Meta | About Jan 4, 2027 | 10% |
| Kimi K4 | Moonshot AI | About Jun 30, 2027 | 3.5% |
| Next DeepSeek Pro | DeepSeek | About Jan 22, 2027 | 4.7% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) | Frontier lab | Oct 28, 2026 | 30% |
| Grok 5 | xAI | About Jan 7, 2027 | 16% |
| GPT-7 | OpenAI | Aug 4, 2027 | 3.5% |
| Next DeepSeek Flash | DeepSeek | Oct 26, 2026 | 59% |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) | Google DeepMind | Nov 9, 2026 | 24% |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) | Alibaba | Dec 18, 2026 | 10% |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) | Alibaba | Not yet priced | — |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) | Google DeepMind | About Dec 3, 2026 | 14% |
Open any model for its probability curve, deadline evidence, and recorded forecast history. Machine-readable copies live at /llms.txt, /api/forecasts, and /feed.xml.
Common questions
About the Next Fable Model (5.2+) forecast
When is the next Fable Model (5.2+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Fable Model (5.2+) release around Oct 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 20, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026. Markets imply a 82% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 90% within a month. The estimate is based on 8 active deadline contracts with $514K of traded volume.
How precise is the Next Fable Model (5.2+) release date forecast?
Markets place 82% of the probability within a week of the median date and 90% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Fable Model (5.2+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.