Live forecast · 17 models tracked
When is the next major AI model expected to be released?
OpenAI’s Astra · market-implied median
Prediction markets currently put the OpenAI’s Astra release around Sep 3, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 3, 2026 to Sep 3, 2026. Markets imply a 94% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 99% within a month. The estimate is based on 10 active deadline contracts with $1.5M of traded volume.
Every tracked model
Estimated AI model release dates
| Model | Lab | Expected release | Within a week |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | OpenAI | Sep 10, 2026 | 89% |
| OpenAI’s Astra | OpenAI | Sep 4, 2026 | 96% |
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model | Google DeepMind | Oct 23, 2026 | 25% |
| Gemini 4.0 | Google DeepMind | Oct 15, 2026 | 18% |
| Next Claude Opus | Anthropic | Sep 26, 2026 | 30% |
| SSI public model | Frontier lab | About Nov 3, 2026 | 9.1% |
| Kimi K4 | Moonshot AI | About May 1, 2027 | 4.4% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) | OpenAI | Not yet priced | — |
| Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) | OpenAI | Sep 26, 2026 | 28% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) | Frontier lab | Oct 7, 2026 | 14% |
| Next Kimi K model | Moonshot AI | Sep 17, 2026 | 49% |
| Next Claude Sonnet | Anthropic | Oct 1, 2026 | 22% |
| Grok 5 | xAI | Dec 18, 2026 | 15% |
| Next Claude Haiku | Anthropic | Oct 27, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) | Alibaba | About Nov 2, 2026 | 18% |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) | Alibaba | About Dec 26, 2026 | 5.4% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) | OpenAI | Oct 7, 2026 | 20% |
Open any model for its probability curve, deadline evidence, and recorded forecast history. Machine-readable copies live at /llms.txt, /api/forecasts, and /feed.xml.
Common questions
About the OpenAI’s Astra forecast
When is OpenAI’s Astra expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the OpenAI’s Astra release around Sep 3, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 3, 2026 to Sep 3, 2026. Markets imply a 94% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 99% within a month. The estimate is based on 10 active deadline contracts with $1.5M of traded volume.
How precise is the OpenAI’s Astra release date forecast?
Markets place 94% of the probability within a week of the median date and 99% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the OpenAI’s Astra release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.