Meta · model release forecast
When is Meta's "Watermelon" model expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 10 to Nov 2
52% within a week82% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Meta's "Watermelon" model release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026. Markets imply a 52% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 82% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $80K of traded volume. It has moved 6 days earlier over the past 27 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the Meta's "Watermelon" model forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 15, 2026 | 53% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 74% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 91% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 9, 2026 the expected release date for Meta's "Watermelon" model has moved 6 days earlier, from Oct 21, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026.
Common questions
About the Meta's "Watermelon" model forecast
When is Meta's "Watermelon" model expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Meta's "Watermelon" model release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 10, 2026 to Nov 2, 2026. Markets imply a 52% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 82% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $80K of traded volume. It has moved 6 days earlier over the past 27 days.
How precise is the Meta's "Watermelon" model release date forecast?
Markets place 52% of the probability within a week of the median date and 82% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Meta's "Watermelon" model release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked