OpenAI · model release forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Nov 3 to Dec 16
17% within a week70% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Nov 24, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 3, 2026 to Dec 16, 2026. Markets imply a 17% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 70% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $170K of traded volume. It has moved 34 days later over the past 10 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 9, 2026 | 1.3% | |
| By Oct 16, 2026 | 13% | |
| By Oct 23, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 23% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 93% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 26, 2026 the expected release date for GPT Astra 6.1+ has moved 34 days later, from Oct 21, 2026 to Nov 24, 2026.
Common questions
About the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Nov 24, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 3, 2026 to Dec 16, 2026. Markets imply a 17% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 70% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $170K of traded volume. It has moved 34 days later over the past 10 days.
How precise is the GPT Astra 6.1+ release date forecast?
Markets place 17% of the probability within a week of the median date and 70% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the GPT Astra 6.1+ release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked