OpenAI · model release forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Nov 20 to Nov 30
68% within a week99% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Nov 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 20, 2026 to Nov 30, 2026. Markets imply a 68% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 99% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $1.2M of traded volume. It has moved 35 days later over the past 50 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 78% | |
| By Dec 15, 2026 | 98% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 99% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 26, 2026 the expected release date for GPT Astra 6.1+ has moved 35 days later, from Oct 21, 2026 to Nov 25, 2026.
Common questions
About the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Nov 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 20, 2026 to Nov 30, 2026. Markets imply a 68% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 99% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $1.2M of traded volume. It has moved 35 days later over the past 50 days.
How precise is the GPT Astra 6.1+ release date forecast?
Markets place 68% of the probability within a week of the median date and 99% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the GPT Astra 6.1+ release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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