OpenAI · model release forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 13 to Nov 23
37% within a week73% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Oct 20, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Nov 23, 2026. Markets imply a 37% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 73% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $10K of traded volume.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 9, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Oct 16, 2026 | 39% | |
| By Oct 23, 2026 | 59% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 64% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 94% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since Sep 26, 2026. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the GPT Astra 6.1+ forecast
When is GPT Astra 6.1+ expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the GPT Astra 6.1+ release around Oct 20, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Nov 23, 2026. Markets imply a 37% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 73% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $10K of traded volume.
How precise is the GPT Astra 6.1+ release date forecast?
Markets place 37% of the probability within a week of the median date and 73% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the GPT Astra 6.1+ release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked