Anthropic · model release forecast
When is Claude 6 expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Jan 11 to Jul 31
4.3% within a week17% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Claude 6 release around Apr 16, 2027, with a middle-50% window from Jan 11, 2027 to Jul 31, 2027. Markets imply a 4.3% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 17% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $32K of traded volume. It has moved 94 days earlier over the past 30 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the Claude 6 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 46% | |
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 72% | |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 93% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 6, 2026 the expected release date for Claude 6 has moved 94 days earlier, from Jul 19, 2027 to Apr 16, 2027.
Common questions
About the Claude 6 forecast
When is Claude 6 expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Claude 6 release around Apr 16, 2027, with a middle-50% window from Jan 11, 2027 to Jul 31, 2027. Markets imply a 4.3% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 17% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $32K of traded volume. It has moved 94 days earlier over the past 30 days.
How precise is the Claude 6 release date forecast?
Markets place 4.3% of the probability within a week of the median date and 17% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Claude 6 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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