xAI · model release forecast
When is Grok 5 expected to be released?
Market-implied median
5.3% within a week23% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Grok 5 release around Nov 30, 2026, with the window opening Oct 2, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 5.3% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 23% within a month. The estimate is based on 4 active deadline contracts with $6K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email when the Grok 5 forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 0.8% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 46% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 50% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 66% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for Grok 5 has held steady, from Nov 30, 2026 to Nov 30, 2026.
Also tracked