xAI · model release forecast
When is Grok 5 expected to be released?
Market-implied median
23% within a week83% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Grok 5 release around Dec 24, 2026, with the window opening Dec 8, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 23% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 83% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $17K of traded volume. It has moved 24 days later over the past 44 days.
Release alerts
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One email the day before the Grok 5 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 1.8% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 61% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for Grok 5 has moved 24 days later, from Nov 30, 2026 to Dec 24, 2026.
Common questions
About the Grok 5 forecast
When is Grok 5 expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Grok 5 release around Dec 24, 2026, with the window opening Dec 8, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 23% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 83% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $17K of traded volume. It has moved 24 days later over the past 44 days.
How precise is the Grok 5 release date forecast?
Markets place 23% of the probability within a week of the median date and 83% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Grok 5 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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