xAI · model release forecast
When is Grok 5 expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
16% within a week59% within a monthGrok 5 is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 44% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Jan 2027. Markets imply a 16% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 59% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $19K of traded volume. It has moved 30 days later over the past 47 days.
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One email the day before the Grok 5 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 2.1% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 14% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 44% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for Grok 5 has moved 30 days later, from Nov 30, 2026 to Dec 30, 2026.
Common questions
About the Grok 5 forecast
When is Grok 5 expected to be released?
Grok 5 is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 44% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Jan 2027. Markets imply a 16% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 59% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $19K of traded volume. It has moved 30 days later over the past 47 days.
How precise is the Grok 5 release date forecast?
Markets place 16% of the probability within a week of the median date and 59% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Grok 5 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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