Meta · model release forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median
46% within a week72% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Nov 27, 2026, with the window opening Nov 21, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 46% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 72% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $58K of traded volume. It has moved 41 days later over the past 66 days.
Release alerts
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One email the day before the the next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 65% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 74% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 10, 2026 the expected release date for the next Muse Spark (1.4+) has moved 41 days later, from Oct 17, 2026 to Nov 27, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Nov 27, 2026, with the window opening Nov 21, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 46% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 72% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $58K of traded volume. It has moved 41 days later over the past 66 days.
How precise is the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release date forecast?
Markets place 46% of the probability within a week of the median date and 72% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked