Meta · model release forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 10 to Oct 25
60% within a week96% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 10, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. Markets imply a 60% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 96% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $29K of traded volume. It has moved 2 days earlier over the past 26 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 16, 2026 | 60% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 88% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 10, 2026 the expected release date for the next Muse Spark (1.4+) has moved 2 days earlier, from Oct 17, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Oct 15, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 10, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. Markets imply a 60% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 96% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $29K of traded volume. It has moved 2 days earlier over the past 26 days.
How precise is the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release date forecast?
Markets place 60% of the probability within a week of the median date and 96% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked