Meta · model release forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median
23% within a week83% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Oct 17, 2026, with the window opening Sep 29, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 23% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 83% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $21K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 12 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 25% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 73% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 10, 2026 the expected release date for the next Muse Spark (1.4+) has held steady, from Oct 17, 2026 to Oct 17, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) forecast
When is the next Muse Spark (1.4+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Muse Spark (1.4+) release around Oct 17, 2026, with the window opening Sep 29, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 23% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 83% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $21K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 12 days.
How precise is the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release date forecast?
Markets place 23% of the probability within a week of the median date and 83% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Muse Spark (1.4+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked