Moonshot AI · model release forecast
When is Kimi K4 expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
2.6% within a week11% within a monthKimi K4 is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 9% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Aug 2027. Markets imply a 2.6% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 11% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $15K of traded volume.
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One email when the Kimi K4 forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 2.4% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 8.5% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since recently. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Also tracked