Moonshot AI · model release forecast
When is Kimi K4 expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
1.2% within a week5.0% within a monthKimi K4 is not expected before Mar 31, 2027 — only 19% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Feb 2028. Markets imply a 1.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 5.0% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $21K of traded volume.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the Kimi K4 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 1.2% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 9.0% | |
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 19% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since recently. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the Kimi K4 forecast
When is Kimi K4 expected to be released?
Kimi K4 is not expected before Mar 31, 2027 — only 19% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Feb 2028. Markets imply a 1.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 5.0% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $21K of traded volume.
How precise is the Kimi K4 release date forecast?
Markets place 1.2% of the probability within a week of the median date and 5.0% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Kimi K4 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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