Moonshot AI · model release forecast
When is Kimi K4 expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
Signal formingKimi K4 is not expected by Mar 31, 2027: markets price only a 9% chance of release by the furthest available deadline. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $22K of traded volume.
Release alerts
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One email the day before the Kimi K4 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 1.2% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 8.5% | |
| By Mar 31, 2027 | 8.6% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since recently. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the Kimi K4 forecast
When is Kimi K4 expected to be released?
Kimi K4 is not expected by Mar 31, 2027: markets price only a 9% chance of release by the furthest available deadline. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $22K of traded volume.
Where does the Kimi K4 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked