DeepSeek · model release forecast
When is the next DeepSeek Pro expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
8.3% within a week34% within a monthThe next DeepSeek Pro is not expected before Nov 30, 2026 — only 40% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Dec 2026. Markets imply a 8.3% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 34% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $20K of traded volume. It has moved 4 days earlier over the past 4 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next DeepSeek Pro forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 18% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 40% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 26, 2026 the expected release date for the next DeepSeek Pro has moved 4 days earlier, from Nov 26, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next DeepSeek Pro forecast
When is the next DeepSeek Pro expected to be released?
The next DeepSeek Pro is not expected before Nov 30, 2026 — only 40% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Dec 2026. Markets imply a 8.3% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 34% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $20K of traded volume. It has moved 4 days earlier over the past 4 days.
How precise is the Next DeepSeek Pro release date forecast?
Markets place 8.3% of the probability within a week of the median date and 34% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next DeepSeek Pro release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked