Google DeepMind · model release forecast
When is the next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median
7.2% within a week34% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) release around Oct 5, 2026, with the window opening Sep 12, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 7.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 34% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $4K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
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The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 48% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 61% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 69% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) has held steady, from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026.
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