Alibaba · model release forecast
When is the next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 17 to Oct 31
18% within a week71% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) release around Oct 6, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 17, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Markets imply a 18% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 71% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $5K of traded volume. It has moved 2 days later over the past 1 days.
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The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 0.3% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 44% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 75% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) has moved 2 days later, from Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 6, 2026.
Also tracked