Alibaba · model release forecast
When is the next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
2.6% within a week11% within a monthThe next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 36% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Mar 2027. Markets imply a 2.6% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 11% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $10K of traded volume.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 15, 2026 | 2.4% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 15% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 36% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since Aug 26, 2026. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) forecast
When is the next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) expected to be released?
The next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) is not expected before Dec 31, 2026 — only 36% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Mar 2027. Markets imply a 2.6% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 11% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $10K of traded volume.
How precise is the Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) release date forecast?
Markets place 2.6% of the probability within a week of the median date and 11% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked