Alibaba · model release forecast
When is the next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) expected to be released?
Market-implied estimate
4.1% within a week18% within a monthThe next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) is not expected before Sep 30, 2026 — only 26% of the probability is priced by then, and the fitted tail points to about Nov 2026. Markets imply a 4.1% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 18% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $4K of traded volume.
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One email when the the next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 3.5% | |
| By Sep 15, 2026 | 24% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 26% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since recently. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Also tracked