Frontier lab · model release forecast
When is the next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 13 to Oct 31
16% within a week65% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) release around Oct 4, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 13, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Markets imply a 16% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 65% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $12K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email when the the next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 46% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 75% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) has held steady, from Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026.
Also tracked