OpenAI · model release forecast
When is the next GPT Sol (6.2+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Nov 8 to Nov 15
79% within a week88% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next GPT Sol (6.2+) release around Nov 12, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 8, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. Markets imply a 79% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 88% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $14K of traded volume.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next GPT Sol (6.2+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Nov 15, 2026 | 76% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 86% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 93% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since Nov 5, 2026. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the Next GPT Sol (6.2+) forecast
When is the next GPT Sol (6.2+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next GPT Sol (6.2+) release around Nov 12, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 8, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. Markets imply a 79% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 88% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $14K of traded volume.
How precise is the Next GPT Sol (6.2+) release date forecast?
Markets place 79% of the probability within a week of the median date and 88% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next GPT Sol (6.2+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked