Google DeepMind · model release forecast
When is Gemini Carbon expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Nov 10 to Nov 15
74% within a week89% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the Gemini Carbon release around Nov 11, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 10, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. Markets imply a 74% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 89% within a month. The estimate is based on 9 active deadline contracts with $95K of traded volume. It has moved 11 days earlier over the past 4 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the Gemini Carbon forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Nov 2, 2026 | 3.3% | |
| By Nov 4, 2026 | 5.0% | |
| By Nov 6, 2026 | 7.2% | |
| By Nov 9, 2026 | 20% | |
| By Nov 11, 2026 | 64% | |
| By Nov 13, 2026 | 68% | |
| By Nov 15, 2026 | 77% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 86% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 96% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Oct 27, 2026 the expected release date for Gemini Carbon has moved 11 days earlier, from Nov 22, 2026 to Nov 11, 2026.
Common questions
About the Gemini Carbon forecast
When is Gemini Carbon expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Gemini Carbon release around Nov 11, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 10, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. Markets imply a 74% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 89% within a month. The estimate is based on 9 active deadline contracts with $95K of traded volume. It has moved 11 days earlier over the past 4 days.
How precise is the Gemini Carbon release date forecast?
Markets place 74% of the probability within a week of the median date and 89% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Gemini Carbon release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked