OpenAI · model release forecast
When is GPT-7 expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Mar 17 to Nov 10
3.2% within a week13% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the GPT-7 release around Jul 17, 2027, with a middle-50% window from Mar 17, 2027 to Nov 10, 2027. Markets imply a 3.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 13% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $30K of traded volume. It has moved 74 days earlier over the past 70 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the GPT-7 forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 47% | |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 86% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 6, 2026 the expected release date for GPT-7 has moved 74 days earlier, from Sep 29, 2027 to Jul 17, 2027.
Common questions
About the GPT-7 forecast
When is GPT-7 expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the GPT-7 release around Jul 17, 2027, with a middle-50% window from Mar 17, 2027 to Nov 10, 2027. Markets imply a 3.2% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 13% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $30K of traded volume. It has moved 74 days earlier over the past 70 days.
How precise is the GPT-7 release date forecast?
Markets place 3.2% of the probability within a week of the median date and 13% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the GPT-7 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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