Anthropic · model release forecast
When is the next Claude Opus expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 15 to Oct 28
18% within a week71% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Claude Opus release around Oct 4, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 28, 2026. Markets imply a 18% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 71% within a month. The estimate is based on 4 active deadline contracts with $15K of traded volume. It has moved 10 days later over the past 1 days.
Release alerts
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One email when the the next Claude Opus forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 3.3% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 46% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 78% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 96% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Claude Opus has moved 10 days later, from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026.
Also tracked