OpenAI · model release forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 23 to Sep 28
89% within a week97% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release around Sep 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 23, 2026 to Sep 28, 2026. Markets imply a 89% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 97% within a month. The estimate is based on 6 active deadline contracts with $51K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day earlier over the past 18 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Sep 23, 2026 | 30% | |
| By Sep 24, 2026 | 49% | |
| By Sep 27, 2026 | 69% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 89% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 99% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 100% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 4, 2026 the expected release date for the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) has moved 1 day earlier, from Sep 26, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) forecast
When is the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release around Sep 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 23, 2026 to Sep 28, 2026. Markets imply a 89% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 97% within a month. The estimate is based on 6 active deadline contracts with $51K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day earlier over the past 18 days.
How precise is the Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release date forecast?
Markets place 89% of the probability within a week of the median date and 97% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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