Anthropic · model release forecast
When is the next Claude Sonnet expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 21 to Dec 9
10% within a week42% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Claude Sonnet release around Oct 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 21, 2026 to Dec 9, 2026. Markets imply a 10% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 42% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $4K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email when the the next Claude Sonnet forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 7.9% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 57% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 85% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Claude Sonnet has held steady, from Oct 22, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026.
Also tracked