Anthropic · model release forecast
When is the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 3 to Oct 11
87% within a week97% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) release around Oct 7, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 3, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. Markets imply a 87% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 97% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $13K of traded volume.
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One email the day before the the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 15, 2026 | 93% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 97% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 97% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Release Oracle has been recording this forecast since Sep 29, 2026. There are not yet enough recorded days to chart movement — check back in a few days.
Common questions
About the Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) forecast
When is the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) release around Oct 7, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 3, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. Markets imply a 87% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 97% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $13K of traded volume.
How precise is the Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) release date forecast?
Markets place 87% of the probability within a week of the median date and 97% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked