DeepSeek · model release forecast
When is the next DeepSeek Flash expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Oct 19 to Oct 31
60% within a week78% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next DeepSeek Flash release around Oct 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Markets imply a 60% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 78% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $12K of traded volume. It has moved 35 days later over the past 35 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next DeepSeek Flash forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 79% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 77% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Sep 9, 2026 the expected release date for the next DeepSeek Flash has moved 35 days later, from Sep 20, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next DeepSeek Flash forecast
When is the next DeepSeek Flash expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next DeepSeek Flash release around Oct 25, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026. Markets imply a 60% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 78% within a month. The estimate is based on 2 active deadline contracts with $12K of traded volume. It has moved 35 days later over the past 35 days.
How precise is the Next DeepSeek Flash release date forecast?
Markets place 60% of the probability within a week of the median date and 78% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next DeepSeek Flash release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
Also tracked