xAI · model release forecast
When is the next Grok Model (4.8+) expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Nov 23 to Dec 5
63% within a week100% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the next Grok Model (4.8+) release around Nov 28, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 23, 2026 to Dec 5, 2026. Markets imply a 63% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 100% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $19K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day later over the past 5 days.
Release alerts
Get told when this date moves
One email the day before the the next Grok Model (4.8+) forecast date, and one on the day itself. Two emails per release, nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Nov 23, 2026 | 27% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 62% | |
| By Dec 7, 2026 | 85% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Nov 10, 2026 the expected release date for the next Grok Model (4.8+) has moved 1 day later, from Nov 27, 2026 to Nov 28, 2026.
Common questions
About the Next Grok Model (4.8+) forecast
When is the next Grok Model (4.8+) expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the next Grok Model (4.8+) release around Nov 28, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Nov 23, 2026 to Dec 5, 2026. Markets imply a 63% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 100% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $19K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day later over the past 5 days.
How precise is the Next Grok Model (4.8+) release date forecast?
Markets place 63% of the probability within a week of the median date and 100% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Next Grok Model (4.8+) release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.
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