OpenAI · model release forecast
When is GPT-6 expected to be released?
Market-implied median
2.9% within a week13% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the GPT-6 release around Nov 11, 2026, with the window opening Sep 22, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 2.9% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 13% within a month. The estimate is based on 6 active deadline contracts with $1.5M of traded volume. It has moved 1 day earlier over the past 1 days.
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One email when the GPT-6 forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 1.1% | |
| By Sep 15, 2026 | 16% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 36% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 45% | |
| By Nov 30, 2026 | 60% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 70% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for GPT-6 has moved 1 day earlier, from Nov 12, 2026 to Nov 11, 2026.
Also tracked