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Anthropic · model release forecast

When is the next Mythos-Class Model expected to be released?

Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 6 to Oct 26

21% within a week73% within a month

Prediction markets currently put the the next Mythos-Class Model release around Sep 13, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 6, 2026 to Oct 26, 2026. Markets imply a 21% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 73% within a month. The estimate is based on 5 active deadline contracts with $211K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day earlier over the past 1 days.

  • 5 active deadlines
  • $211K source volume
  • 2 days recorded
  • Updated

The evidence

Release probability by deadline

25%50%75%AugSepOctNov
Cumulative probability that the next Mythos-Class Model has been released by each date.
Next Mythos-Class Model release probability by deadline date
DeadlineProbability barProbability
By Aug 31, 2026 13%
By Sep 9, 2026 31%
By Sep 15, 2026 54%
By Sep 30, 2026 63%
By Oct 31, 2026 77%

Forecast history

How this estimate has moved

Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Mythos-Class Model has moved 1 day earlier, from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026.

Sep 6Sep 11Sep 16Sep 21Aug 23Aug 23Aug 24 Sep 13, 2026
Each point is the median date Release Oracle published on that day.

Also tracked

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