OpenAI · model release forecast
When is OpenAI’s Astra expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 9 to Sep 29
33% within a week94% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the OpenAI’s Astra release around Sep 19, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 9, 2026 to Sep 29, 2026. Markets imply a 33% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 94% within a month. The estimate is based on 4 active deadline contracts with $322K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
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One email when the OpenAI’s Astra forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 2.1% | |
| By Sep 15, 2026 | 39% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 76% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 89% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for OpenAI’s Astra has held steady, from Sep 19, 2026 to Sep 19, 2026.
Also tracked