Anthropic · model release forecast
When is the next Claude Haiku expected to be released?
Market-implied median
5.4% within a week24% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Claude Haiku release around Oct 22, 2026, with the window opening Sep 23, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 5.4% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 24% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $7K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.
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One email when the the next Claude Haiku forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 5.0% | |
| By Oct 31, 2026 | 57% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 55% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Claude Haiku has held steady, from Oct 22, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026.
Also tracked