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Anthropic · model release forecast

When is the next Claude Haiku expected to be released?

Market-implied median

5.4% within a week24% within a month

Prediction markets currently put the the next Claude Haiku release around Oct 22, 2026, with the window opening Sep 23, 2026 and no upper bound priced yet. Markets imply a 5.4% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 24% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $7K of traded volume. It has held steady over the past 1 days.

  • 3 active deadlines
  • $7K source volume
  • 2 days recorded
  • Updated

The evidence

Release probability by deadline

25%50%75%SepOctNovDecJan
Cumulative probability that the next Claude Haiku has been released by each date.
Next Claude Haiku release probability by deadline date
DeadlineProbability barProbability
By Aug 31, 2026 5.0%
By Oct 31, 2026 57%
By Dec 31, 2026 55%

Forecast history

How this estimate has moved

Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Claude Haiku has held steady, from Oct 22, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026.

Oct 15Oct 19Oct 24Oct 29Aug 23Aug 23Aug 24 Oct 22, 2026
Each point is the median date Release Oracle published on that day.

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