Moonshot AI · model release forecast
When is the next Kimi K model expected to be released?
Market-implied median · middle 50%: Sep 5 to Sep 23
47% within a week99% within a monthPrediction markets currently put the the next Kimi K model release around Sep 13, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 5, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026. Markets imply a 47% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 99% within a month. The estimate is based on 4 active deadline contracts with $9K of traded volume. It has moved 1 day earlier over the past 1 days.
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One email when the the next Kimi K model forecast shifts by a week or more, and one when the release is confirmed. Nothing else.
The evidence
Release probability by deadline
| Deadline | Probability bar | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| By Aug 31, 2026 | 5.8% | |
| By Sep 15, 2026 | 56% | |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 91% | |
| By Dec 31, 2026 | 99% |
Forecast history
How this estimate has moved
Since Aug 23, 2026 the expected release date for the next Kimi K model has moved 1 day earlier, from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026.
Also tracked