Live forecast · 17 models tracked
When is the next major AI model expected to be released?
Gemini 4.0 · market-implied median
Prediction markets currently put the Gemini 4.0 release around Oct 13, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026. Markets imply a 86% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 94% within a month. The estimate is based on 7 active deadline contracts with $1.6M of traded volume.
Every tracked model
Estimated AI model release dates
| Model | Lab | Expected release | Within a week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next Google Gemini Pro Model | Google DeepMind | About Feb 27, 2027 | 2.9% |
| Gemini 4.0 | Google DeepMind | Oct 13, 2026 | 86% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) | Anthropic | Oct 21, 2026 | 61% |
| GPT Astra 6.1+ | OpenAI | Nov 29, 2026 | 16% |
| SSI public model | Frontier lab | Nov 28, 2026 | 14% |
| Meta's "Watermelon" model | Meta | Oct 14, 2026 | 97% |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) | OpenAI | About Dec 15, 2026 | 3.2% |
| Gemini Argon | Google DeepMind | Oct 14, 2026 | 81% |
| Claude 6 | Anthropic | May 8, 2027 | 6.3% |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) | Meta | About Jan 2, 2027 | 7.0% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) | Frontier lab | Oct 28, 2026 | 35% |
| Next DeepSeek Pro | DeepSeek | About Mar 26, 2027 | 1.9% |
| Kimi K4 | Moonshot AI | Not yet priced | — |
| Grok 5 | xAI | About Jan 27, 2027 | 10% |
| GPT-7 | OpenAI | Jul 29, 2027 | 4.0% |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) | Google DeepMind | Nov 24, 2026 | 28% |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) | Alibaba | Not yet priced | — |
Open any model for its probability curve, deadline evidence, and recorded forecast history. Machine-readable copies live at /llms.txt, /api/forecasts, and /feed.xml.
Common questions
About the Gemini 4.0 forecast
When is Gemini 4.0 expected to be released?
Prediction markets currently put the Gemini 4.0 release around Oct 13, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Oct 13, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026. Markets imply a 86% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 94% within a month. The estimate is based on 7 active deadline contracts with $1.6M of traded volume.
How precise is the Gemini 4.0 release date forecast?
Markets place 86% of the probability within a week of the median date and 94% within a month. A date with only a few percent inside a week should be read as a month, not a day.
Where does the Gemini 4.0 release forecast come from?
Each public "released by <date>?" contract on Polymarket gives one point on a cumulative probability curve. Release Oracle sorts those points, corrects small inconsistencies, then interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date and the 25% and 75% crossings for its uncertainty window. Forecasts are market signals, not lab announcements, and can be wrong.